Bitcoin Market: $4400 Target to the downside.

in cryptocurrency •  4 months ago

Hi traders, let's talk about my buy in targets in case we wash out to the downside.

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Bitcoin.

  • Bitcoin dropped to $6100 yesterday after failing to gather enough momentum to break above $6800. The cryptocurrency is currently trading at around $6245 in a tight range...

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... and current price action looks completely overbought:

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... which tells me a retest of $5700 is probably in the cards over the weekend...

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... with possible capitulation through that low volume area to $4400 if $5700 is not defended.

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  • If we make it down there I expect Bitcoin to find a range between $4500 and $3700 where larger players will probably start accumulating the good stuff in anticipation for the next market cycle...

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... as we explained in this post institutions now dispose of a variety of options to securely store crypto-currencies (e.g. Coinbase, LEDGER Vault).

On the bright side, rumors of a Bitcoin ETF have started to emerge. SEC is supposedly meant to decide on the fate of a Bitcoin Trust on August 10th which is 45 days after the date of the publication of the notice by the CBOE (although this period can be extended to another 45 days which would take us to September 24th). SEC has already started to hear comments from the public regarding a Bitcoin ETF:

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... some of them frankly hilarious...

SEC, please pump my bags:

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... however, there is no way to know for sure when the SEC will make their decision and, most importantly, if they will green light a Bitcoin ETF. SEC have already rejected a Bitcoin ETF proposed by the Winklevoss brothers back in March 2017, you can find their reasoning here for reference.

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  • However, it's possible that the anticipation of an ETF might trigger some FOMO among larger payers which could materialize into price support at current level...

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... I do think we're getting closer and closer to a bottom, but frankly speaking my bias remains bearish until proven otherwise.

What about you traders, what do you make of that August 10th rumor?

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I think we got a shoulder Head shoulder...!!

The market has been the support at Ca 6100 yesterday all day we're being an anxieg watching ☝️ over 6800
Believe even that 7500 - 8000 in

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Yeah I am watching this inverted H&S as well, the problem is that everybody else is watching it too , which tells me the pattern might not complete. Personally I think the most important metric is volume, not patterns, but I am open for discussion.

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same waiting for it too. I think the big portion of it depends on whale's sentiment, they have the volume to break and create any pattern =)

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True. Volume trumps patterns.

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i like reading your analysis, apart from TA you can co-relate it to upcoming news that can possible swing the price. Probably btc still on the sideway till nearer the aug date. If the btc etf get put down, probably there will be some knee jerk but with or without that etf, btc still function haha human psychology is interesting.

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sure is, trading is fascinating. I can totally see some prolonged accumulation leading up to August... that would be a strong buy signal imo

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yeah waiting for it

Bearish or not, it's a good post. I just don't support using the StochRSI - is a derivative tool derived from another derivative tool and it's especially bad in the short term - at least that's what I find. For BTC I prefer using a regular Stoch over a longer term. Of course you must use whatever works for you.

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Yeah, maybe was a bit of a stretch to use it on the hourly, I find it very useful on the daily chart though, especially to spot bullish/bearish divergences, Stoch RSI has yielded incredible predictive powers when used that way.