Crypto Bull or Fiat Bear

in cryptocurrencies •  last month
It may seem at times as if I'm trying to just enclose myself tighter inside my bubble. And if I'm to be honest about my current mindset, it's hard for me to tell the difference, although I try really hard to be objective about all my observations. But, I seriously don't see any other way this thing is going to play out.




The imminent implosion


It can be delayed, but can it be avoided? I don't see how, and I promise I've been trying to twist my head around this for the better part of this year. Now, it's not that I don't understand the ideas of capitalism, or the function of FIAT even, the way inflation is suppose to entice us to consume, to transact, to outwork it's percentage points, all that is clear as day.

However, as with many things, the system is corrupted, it's not working as it was intended and it's literally held in place, with almost comical solutions. Maybe not everyone is familiar with negative interest, and of course, if you are not someone who reads up on economics, the term sounds impossible, but that's just the thing, it's not, it's quite real.

Negative real interest rates. If there is a negative real interest rate, it means that the inflation rate is greater than the nominal interest rate. If the Federal funds rate is 2% and the inflation rate is 10%, then the borrower would gain 7.27% of every dollar borrowed per year.

So when we have renowned economist calling for the next crisis, they are not calling it for ratings, not because they enjoy being the prophets of doom, but because they are seeing the effects. In other words, 2008 was just the beginning, the first shakeup, but another one is coming, and is coming real soon.

Our Fake economy


Here in the US we see it all over the news; record breaking year for stocks, biggest bull run in history, record low unemployed, etc. It would seem as if we are doing great, and honestly on the surface you can say that we are. However, what's really happening is that we are continuing to over extend our debt, overspending, pretending that everything is fine and dandy.


http://www.usdebtclock.org/

What does this all mean you say? Well, it means that there will be either a new crash, something that might even dwarf 2008, and again, the people, us, will be expected to pay the bill. One more time we will have these conversations about how X bank is too big to fail, and thus the government cannot allow it.

We would think that we learnt the lesson last time, that we did something as a country to make the Banks smaller, to not allow the bubble to inflate again, but today my friends, today we are seeing the bubble of everything, and unfortunately that is not an exaggeration.

So what happens next?


I wish I knew, I wish someone knew. Here is the deal, there are plenty of economist theorizing on how we can fix this. Some with progressive leftist ideas, some with a more libertarian angle, but both simple theorizing, and nothing more.

One would think that there would be an active search for solutions from our government, but this is not the case, not even a little bit. "Oh, we need more money? Print more, just print more... " - Rounds of quantitative easing to make up for an in depth administration of wealth and resources.

Quantitative easing, also known as large-scale asset purchases, is an expansionary monetary policy whereby a central bank buys predetermined amounts of government bonds or other financial assets in order to stimulate the economy and increase liquidity.

When the bonds, if the bonds become worthless, What happens? What happens if these countries that we do trade with, that mind you we've been somewhat hostile lately, say to us, We don't want dollars anymore? What then?

Sometimes I wonder what's a more accurate description of me: Crypto Bull or Fiat Bear?

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The solution is to root out the corruption. There is no excuse to have an economy that fails these days. This isn't Egypt 4000 years ago where there's a famine if the Nile doesn't flood.

The only excuse for an economy that doesn't work are the leeches running rampant sucking it dry. We need to eliminate the corruption. We need to cut out the middle man. We need to create transparent economic systems that are difficult to exploit.

If only such a technology existed that could accomplish these feats.

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hahahaha i have to admit your punchline had me laughing for a while.

What most people really do not understand is that this money printing quantitative easing is world wide ,the US just down plays it. In Japan they openly buy bonds/stocks and have been propping up the market. In 2008 everyone panicked, so they put interest rates at 0%. Worldwide interest rates are still so low, even with the small rate increases in the US, they still print and give money away. There is no free stock market anymore.......and they will print us to Zimbabwe!
resteemed !!

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hence why they call it the bubble of everything... at this point, I think those who are diversifying between precious metals and crypto are doing things right.

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You know @ meno I have been diversifying between precious metals and Crypto for awhile, and then I see this fake propped up stock market that just Isn't a functioning market anymore. On the other hand if I had put some fiat into this fake market..... the returns I would have had.
I know what you are going to say , we don't know when this will crash and burn and we don't ,but what if they just keep printing..... It is so rigged! (:

Some of the economic metrics out there are truly scary and the sad part is that institutions continue to push consumers into more debt and retail investors into high risk securities with the thought that this market and economy is sustainable when in fact it is built on thin ice as optics have helped metrics. However, when economic metrics start to crumble, debts will go unpaid, jobs will be lost and companies will go bankrupt leaving those in the middle crunched yet again while the wealthy get more money...

I think a lot of traditional markets, currencies etc are beyond repair. This notion that governments are going to somehow turn things around and start paying down debt is crazy to me. They can only print money for so long before it all unravels. The question is not if but when, and that question is a very difficult one to answer.

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if it happens under trump i think it would be both comical (since he brags so much) and disastrous, since our government is kind of inept.

I think we are equally both. In my eyes being a Crypto Bull and Fiat Bear goes hand in hand.

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yes of course, embrace both, right?

Sometimes I wonder what's a more accurate description of me: Crypto Bull or Fiat Bear?

If fiat weren't total trash, I can't imagine the valuation of cryptos being so high... USD has lost 98% of its value since 1913, so I guess cryptos would be roughly 2% of their dollar value if fiat wasn't inflatable nonsense(?)

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yeah, facts are facts... but of course, this info is only for those who go deep into the rabbit hole.

Well, as long as the particular Crypto you follow trades and is evaluated mainly against the Dollar, in economic terms "Crypto Bull" and "Fiat Bear" are exactly the same thing -- long Crypto/USD.

But it's possible that we're already seeing a major shift -- a move towards crypto bundles, ETF's "by any other name".
And here I must mention BTC specifically, as the current market baseline:
Though attitudes towards BTC differ (and I'm not a big fan of that specific coin myself), in the future you may have to ask yourself "where do I sit on the {BUNDLE}/BTC see-saw"?
I'm afraid in this "collectivised" projection of our future STEEM is somewhat unlikely to be traded alone -- we might want to take a closer look at our potential "neighbours", in any package we're slotted into. Maybe even stake or argue our "turf" rights per-emptively.

I believe crypto is a better solution but I also believe crypto will be exploited. Even a perfect system will be exploited by the people in power. Its just human nature. Hopefully I'm wrong but as a realist I just want progress and development even if the system is not perfect.

Hey, @meno.

It seems to me that in most cases, when an economy finally fails, it is preceded by a lack of faith in it by the people, to where they begin to act more drastically to protect their own interests. Prices go up, there's a run on the banks (as if paper money is going to be worth much), stocks get sold in panic stricken fashion, and down it goes.

Why that hasn't happened in the US or globally yet, I don't know. While I've been dumbfounded by the measures the FED and the Federal government have taken to supposedly correct things, I've been amazed at the resiliency of the US economy. It has to be the fact that we continue to be in large measure the reserve currency, though the percentage of countries using the dollar in that way has begun to fall in recent years. Otherwise, we'd be the Weimar Republic by now.

Perhaps it will be that, reaching a tipping point as countries move away to some so-called more stable basket of currencies, or maybe it will be the point where the countries that hold most of our debt decide to call in the markers, or dump the debt somehow. Or it could be that one of the weaker European nations finally collapses and the domino effect of mutually assured economic destruction finally takes place.

Regardless of how the end actually comes (and I believe it will be an end of sorts), the question becomes for those of us who are aware of this, who see the inevitability of it, who have been watching it come for all of our lives—how do we come out of it in any measurable semblance of okay, and then survive, with as many of our loved ones as we can maintain?

The economic reckoning is coming. Will crypto be the safe haven? Will the preppers and the doomsdayers be vindicated? Will China call our bluff, march on us if we don't pay our debts with the accumulative real estate of the entire western half of the United States?

When and how are the lesser questions. The inevitability of it is what needs to be recognized, and then figure out what to do about it, because we as individuals, or groups, will be on our own to figure it out. The government won't. The FED won't. The powers that be won't.

We're it.

re: crypto bull/fiat bear

They are either side of the same coin. One and the same.

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thank you for the thoughtful comment...

and of course, i echo your sentiments.

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Hey, @meno.

Well, thanks for that. I greatly appreciate your posts, because they do give me cause to pause and think, and provide a vehicle for somewhere to put my thoughts. :)

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